Monday 11 May

5/10/10 Update:  STP for Monday.

GFS STP for 0Z Monday

An update to Chris White’s original post from last  week (below):  the trough long-depicted in the models should pull through the plains tomorrow.  With impressive 0-1km SRH and robust instability, we know what that may mean…  -Dave

Great looking CAPE, plenty of speed and directional shear, decent moisture, and an approaching low / cold front. I’d set up shop in Great Bend Kansas on Rte 281 by 3 pm local time, ready to catch some supercells, wall clouds, and tornadoes. Of course, I think I’d have plenty of company in that area!!

Chris White

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20 responses to “Monday 11 May

  1. There’s one major problem with this, Chris.

    It’s ONE WEEK TOO EARLY!

  2. hokiestormchaser

    Details, details…..if one can’t be there one can at least observe from afar and sigh…

    – Chris

  3. hokiestormchaser

    …we will target Great Bend one week later, and sit dead-center in the middle of an Omega Block per the earlier GFS run, and enjoy the ballistic UV-Index set-up. Got sunscreen? -Dave

  4. It is tougher to see this stuff unfolding the week before a chase trip than it is several weeks out.

    Just looking at the little bit of stuff I’ve seen, I might start a bit farther east than Great Bend … perhaps the Wichita area.

  5. 12Z runs really like the omega block. to cite a phrase commonly used in my 2nd grade days, “if you like it so much why don’t you marry it!”

  6. Dave and I have been noting how the 12Z runs seem to be in their own orbit apart from the other 3 runs. Today’s 12Z run builds a weird cutoff low directly over us (as in over Roanoke/Blacksburg) with vorts circling around each other like a demented square dance. I think this is GFS long-range garbage — saw it create similar features during the winter. Without that cutoff low, the whole pattern falls apart, including the omega block.

  7. 2006 was our Great Omega Block storm chase. We caught a small tornado in North Carolina, an awesome supercell in Illinois, got on the outskirts of a developing meso/possible tornado in southern Wisconsin, and ended up on the wrong side of a tornadic supercell in Indiana … all EAST of the Mississippi. We did catch some picturesque cells in western Nebraska/eastern Colorado and let a squall line roar over us in South Dakota, plus some CGs and a shelf cloud with a pulse storm in the Missouri Bootheel barely west of the Mississippi.

  8. and all that came out of an omega block??? not bad…..haha

  9. Every bit of that was from SOUTHEAST moving features. The Illinois supercell — the Maroa Miracle as we call it — was mostly feeding off ambient moisture from surface evaporation and quite possible moisture from Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes, because the Gulf was shut down for business. We finally got some weak Gulf flow by our second week.

  10. OK, sorry for hijacking the thread a bit about past war stories … back to this week’s setup.

    It appears that each weekday next week could hold significant severe potential with a trough digging in. The most potent areas shift around, but Kansas seems to be the focal point.

  11. next week looks really good, and i mean REALLY good. painful to see it right before we head out tho! just checked the 18z run and it looks much better than this morning’s. the omega block is gone and there’s a trough right around KS for a wednesday play!

  12. the above statement of course referring to the wednesday after next…the 19th

  13. It’s ALWAYS like this Kathryn — every week before a storm chase I can remember yields multiple chase opportunities. Or maybe I just notice them more since we’re about to go but can’t just yet.

    Many GFS runs show a trough starting to dig into the Pacific Northwest during our middle weekend, about the 22-23 or so. Perhaps that can dig farther east fo rour second week.

  14. i see it…..we will coax it down into the plains for the 2nd week. i am confident 😉

  15. hokiestormchaser

    Kevin,
    Having just looked at a later model run I’d agree with moving further east in Kansas for this coming Monday. As for the following week – after you set sail for the Plains – I don’t trust any models that far out, but I do like to follow the progressive solutions as they bounce around.

    -Chris

  16. After a quick check of the 12Z model runs I’d stick to my original target of Great Bend KS for mid-afternoon tomorrow. Looks like all the ingredients will make it that far north (shear, moisture, CAPE, and weakened cap). As the system progresses eastward I can foresee a retreat toward Wichita and points eastward as darkness falls. Good news is that the Kansas road system would easily accommodate that move. Now, if conditions would ripen here in Virginia so I can squeeze in a chase this week…

    – Chris

  17. SPC’s biggest hold-up in Kansas is cloud cover from expected early morning elevated storms. It precluded them from issuing a moderate risk yesterday but today they seem to be moving past it some… it’ll be interesting to see what they say tomorrow morning.

  18. SPC has upgraded it to a high risk with a 30% hatched area for a “few strong/long track tornadoes” for NE OK / SE KS.

  19. will, i woke up and saw they upgraded to a high risk. i had a feeling they would because it’s allll there for tornadoes to initiate. like dave said in the post helicity and shear, as well as instability are maxed out and the cold front will come through as an added bonus. moisture, shear, and a trigger!

  20. (first post on the forums)

    Looks like a big day today I’ll probably be glued to the computer most of the day, unfortunately my weather tap free trial ran out last week… might be worth noting too that behind that dry line in western texas theres some pretty dangerous fire conditions, and in the Northeast theyve been having nightly frosts for a couple days. its a crazy weather day all round

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