All eyes turn to the pattern…

Both medium and long-range guidance has been schizophrenic in the depiction of the overall pattern for our trip.  Tentatively (very tentatively), it would appear that we may have a trough digging into the northern plains toward the first weekend of our time on the road, and perhaps a second digging in during week 2.  Post anything you see here, and we can try to discern what we may face out there!   -Dave


4 responses to “All eyes turn to the pattern…

  1. The first major decision we’re likely to have to make is whether to go to an upper low moving through the Southern Plains or to head to the Northern Plains for any developing trough setup there. It’s kind of like on one of the Superman movies where Lex Luthor shoots off two missiles in opposite directions so that Superman can’t catch them both. We can hit both regions, and may well end up doing so, but going to Texas means that North Dakota would be out of play for 2-3 days, and vice versa. So there will be lots of cost-benefit analysis in addition to weather analysis — is a short or marginal risk in one region worth sacrificing for setting up for a longer/more severe but less certain risk in the other? Bird in the hand? Two in the bush? The fun begins soon.

  2. …overnight model runs bring a closed-low/500mb vortmax across the Rockies and into the southern plains toward Wednesday…looks like we will be heading southbound to begin with (subject to change of course!). Could be severe potential right off the bat. -Dave

  3. Cost benefit analysis… so I can finally put some of my Engineering Economics concepts to work… in Meterology. Go figure.

    I like Texas simply because its bound to have some ample CAPE available. It’s been raining down that way fairly consistently here lately, so if we can get some heat pumped up in there, it’s gonna be cookin real good.

  4. Texas looks to make us some delicious storm soup

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