Trip’s first target: The Texas Panhandle Region

This is where we’re headed out of the gate: the general area marked by the Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk for Tuesday in the Texas Panhandle. There are lots of details that remain to be worked out about this scenario, but in general, an upper low is moving out of the Desert Southwest that is likely to increase both lift and shear in the Southern Plains late Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday. Moisture is abundant, so it will all come down to instability on where, how much and when severe storms can fire. A stationary front to the north may back slowly to the south, bringing cooler air and low cloudiness that would hamper instability. Getting south of that boundary in the warmer, more unstable air will be a big  key to finding storms on Tuesday. Of course, we will be at the end of a very long trip over 2 days with lots of on-the-road analysis, so it may just come down to finding whatever is most reachable on Tuesday. We plan to be in a much better position to set up and plan for Wednesday and possibly Thursday and Friday with the same system as it slowly moves eastward.

See you at 11 a.m. Monday at Squires Student Center.

— Kevin Myatt

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11 responses to “Trip’s first target: The Texas Panhandle Region

  1. the area looks ripe for storms….sufficient cape (especially wednesday) and deep layer shear adequate as well…..heck even helicity looks good.

    think it’s feasible to make it to the panhandle by 18z tuesday? haha…

  2. I think we can be in the Panhandle by 2-3 p.m. Tuesday barring traffic delays. Remember that we’ll be in Central time so we’ll “gain” an hour traveling westbound. Long road trip to somewhere in central or western Arkansas on Monday, early get-up on Tuesday, and then about 6 hours to eastern edge of TX Panhandle. We generally consider 4 p.m. to be the firing hour for severe weather, though obviously that can vary.

  3. Sounds feasible to me! (I did forget about the central time zone haha)
    21z is certainly the witching hour!

  4. on my way back down to tech. see you tomorrow!

  5. The NAM 00Z THU has a SigTor Bullseye of 8-9 just east of Childress, TX. 00Z WED is quieter but still have a good shot of some storms.

  6. I think Wednesday will be the biggest day this week. Tuesday, Thursday and maybe even Friday have potential with the first system. And then comes the second trough into the Northern Plains.

  7. Looking forward to watching ya’ll. Hope this year is better than last.

  8. slight risk up for OK/TX wednesday…we’re in business! and i’m sure you’ve seen the second trough….. 🙂

  9. Best wishes for successful hunting and be safe!!

  10. Good luck everyone! Happy storm hunting!

  11. Thanks Lynn!
    we’ve had a great first 2 days out here with intercepting two monster storms (1 each day). all tornadoes have been rainwrapped, but the views have still been incredible.

    and thank you to you too, gail!

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