This is where we’re headed out of the gate: the general area marked by the Storm Prediction Center’s slight risk for Tuesday in the Texas Panhandle. There are lots of details that remain to be worked out about this scenario, but in general, an upper low is moving out of the Desert Southwest that is likely to increase both lift and shear in the Southern Plains late Tuesday and even more so on Wednesday. Moisture is abundant, so it will all come down to instability on where, how much and when severe storms can fire. A stationary front to the north may back slowly to the south, bringing cooler air and low cloudiness that would hamper instability. Getting south of that boundary in the warmer, more unstable air will be a big key to finding storms on Tuesday. Of course, we will be at the end of a very long trip over 2 days with lots of on-the-road analysis, so it may just come down to finding whatever is most reachable on Tuesday. We plan to be in a much better position to set up and plan for Wednesday and possibly Thursday and Friday with the same system as it slowly moves eastward.
See you at 11 a.m. Monday at Squires Student Center.
— Kevin Myatt